Hedge fund pro Bezek analyzes the forecast for IonQ stock

(SeekingAlpha) Seeking Alpha’s ‘hedge fund pro’ Ian Bezek lays out his forecast for IonQ stock. That analysis is summarized here by IQT-News.

IonQ (IONQ) is one of the first publicly-traded quantum computing companies available to investors. Quantum computing hopes to mark an exponential increase in the power of computers compared to existing technology, unlocking whole new avenues of research and data analysis.
While the promise is tremendous, IonQ and peers such as Rigetti Computing (SNII) so far have little in the way of revenues to prove out the technology’s commercial merits.

Where Is IonQ Headed In 2022?
Toward volatility. Given the early nature of IonQ’s business, the nascent state of its whole industry, and its SPAC roots, IonQ stock is likely to be a roller coaster in 2022. In other words, expect more of what we saw in Q4 of 2021.

By 2024, it anticipates hitting $60 million of bookings. Note that these bookings are not immediate sales, rather the company anticipates them turning into revenue over a 36-month span.
If you are investing in this company today, you absolutely must have a long-term view on the firm, its management and its technology.
Backers can point to a potential TAM in the tens or hundreds of billions of dollars. And they’re not wrong. If quantum computing succeeds at scale, it will upend industries such as weather forecasting, big data analytics, and biotechnology research. Quantum computing isn’t an incremental improvement to existing technology, but rather a complete sea change. Given the scale of the potential improvement, it’s almost hard to forecast all the potential uses of quantum computing today.
In IonQ’s defense, its technology has already demonstrated success on a small scale and is starting to generate a bit of revenue. The keyword here is scalable; it’s unclear if IonQ’s technology will work on a larger footprint and find adequate market demand to make this a multi-billion dollar business.

Bezek explains, “On the plus side, IonQ’s high-quality backers and partners make me less concerned about the technology part of the equation, despite the above risk factor.”

Is IonQ Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?
Given the current market environment for SPACs, it’s hard to endorse buying a SPAC outright that is trading well above the initial $10 deal pricing level. In this market, SPACs just aren’t getting any benefit of the doubt, and IONQ shares could correct swiftly on weak guidance or any other such negative development.

Bezek’s conclusion: “I’d personally wait on IONQ stock to dip further before taking a long position. Or for people wanting exposure to the IonQ story today, strategic use of options could enable a more attractive entry point in the stock.”