Quantum Processors: Roadmaps and Forecasts

Report: IQT-QPC-0321
Published March 15, 2021

In the past year, the quantum computing industry has gained a new sense of confidence. Instead of fighting battles again quantum skeptics, quantum computer firms mostly believe that these battles have been won and the task now is now to create roadmaps to much faster/higher capacity quantum machines that are unquestionably powerful enough to achieve so-called quantum advantage.

These roadmaps center round new advancements in quantum processors, such as higher capacities in terms of qubits and improved error correction.  They also differ in the marketing approaches deployed by the quantum computer firms.   Quantum processors are the core chips around which quantum computers are created.  In the report, we also examine important developments in core quantum processing in quantum labs and at major institutes and universities.  In addition, we look at how each firm’s quantum processor strategy fits (where this is appropriate) with their more general technology and product strategy.

While quantum processors are the main focus of this report, the study also covers other components of quantum computers including the electronics for the necessary analog control systems and cryo equipment.

The report also includes a quantitative forecast of the evolution of the quantum processors along dimensions such as the number of qubits supported, quantum volume, etc. The forecasts in this report are based on IQT Research’s forecasts of shipments of quantum computers.  These forecasts are now widely used by quantum computer companies throughout the world.

Provisional Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1  Background to this report
1.2  Objective and scope of this report
1.3  Methodology of this report
1.4  Plan of this report
Chapter Two: Technical and Market Assessment of Quantum Processor Evolution
2.1  Annealers, Simulators, and Universal Quantum Computers
2.2  The (Current) quantum processor race
2.2.1 Ion Trap Qubits
2.2.2 Neutral Atom Qubits
2.2.3 Photonic Qubits
2.2.4 Spin Qubits
2.2.5 Superconducting Qubits
2.2.6 Topological Qubits
2.3  Reaching Quantum Advantage is a more difficult than reaching Quantum Supremacy
2.4  WYMIWYG – What You Measure Is What You Get
2.5  The full cost of fully error corrected quantum computers
2.6  Why materials matter – for some!
2.7  The increasing importance of enabling technologies
2.7.1 Cryogenics
2.7.2 Microwave technology
2.7.3 Photonic technology
2.7.4 Test and measurement
2.8  Should the two worlds of quantum hardware and quantum software just meet or merge?
2.9  Are some quantum processors better suited to certain applications than others?
2.10  Endgame: Multicores and multiprocessors
Chapter Three: Quantum Processor Companies:  Design Philosophies and Roadmaps
3.1 Introduction
3.2 AQT (Alpine Quantum Technologies)
3.3 Honeywell
3.4 Ion Q
3.5 Cold Quanta
3.6 Pasqal
3.7 PsiQuantum
3.8 Xanadu
3.9 Intel
3.10 Silicon Quantum Computing
3.11 D-Wave
3.12 Google
3.13 IBM
3.14 IQM
3.15 Rigetti
3.16 Microsoft
Chapter Four: Seven-year Market Forecasts of Quantum Processors
4.1 Forecasting methodology
4.2 Forecast of average number of bits processed per processor by computing technology
4.3 Forecast of type of processing technology used by Quantum Processor
4.4 Quantum processor by core material
4.5 Quantum by number of core processors in machine
4.6 Electronics for analog control of quantum computing systems
4.7 Electronics for cryogenics

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