Quantum Key Distribution: The Next Generation – A Ten-year Forecast and Revenue Assessment: 2020 to 2029

Report IQT-QKD-0720
Published July 22, 2020
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Quantum Key Distribution: The Next Generation – A Ten-year Forecast and Revenue Assessment: 2020 to 2029

Inside Quantum Technology has provided coverage of the Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) since 2014 and publishes an annual ten-year market forecast. This report is the latest of these our QKD market studies. It updates the forecasts and analyses the key QKD industry developments over the period since the previous IQT report. Inside Quantum Technology was the first industry analysis firm to predict that quantum security in mobile phones would become a significant revenue earner in the short-term. When we forecast this a couple of years ago, we were criticized, but phones using QRNGs were announced earlier this year and this report discusses how the “mobile QRNG” market will evolve.

There have been some big developments in the QKD space since our previous report. In particular, the regulatory and financial framework for the development of a vibrant QKD business has matured. On the standardization and funding front, the ITU-T standardization is near complete while both the US and UK governments have announced major funding for large-scale quantum networks with QKD as a central component. And the QuantumCtek IPO may just be the beginning of the new public companies in this space.

The report contains forecasts of the hardware and service revenues from QKD in all the major end user groups. It also profiles all the leading suppliers of QKD boxes and services. These profiles are designed to provide the reader of this report with an understanding of how the major players are creating QKD products and building marketing strategies for QKD as quantum computers become more ubiquitous.

Executive Summary
E.1.1 Smartphones with QRNGs
E.1.2 PQC and QKD: together at last
E.1.3 ITU-T standardization complete
E.1.4 A new Chinese QKD satellite experiment
E.1.5 The US and the UK both announce funding for large-scale quantum networks with QKD as a central component
E.1.6 “New entrants” Toshiba and QuantumCtek
E.2 Evolution of QKD technology and its ongoing commercialization
E.3 Summary of ten-year forecasts of QKD markets
E4 Five firms to watch closely in the QKD space
 
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to report: Why QKD is a growing market opportunity
1.2 Goals and scope of this report
1.3 Methodology
1.4 Plan of this report
 
Chapter Two: A Current Technology Assessment of QKD
2.1 What does QKD bring to the cryptography market
2.1.1 PQC’s Love-Hate Relationship with QKD
2.2 Technology achievements
2.2.1 Distance
2.2.2 Key exchange rate
2.2.3 Cost of equipment
2.3 Optical infrastructure
2.3.1 Quantum Xchange
2.3.2 China’s Beijing to Shanghai Link
2.3.3 Tokyo QKD Network
2.3.4 SK Telecom
2.4 QKD Satellite Networks
2.5 Line-of-Sight Networks (Terrestrial)
2.6 Chip-based QKD
2.7 QKD Standardization
2.7.1 ETSI
2.7.2 NIST
2.7.3 ITU-T
2.7.4 IETF
2.7.5 ISO
2.7.6 X.9
2.8 Key Takeaways from this Chapter
 
Chapter Three: QKD Markets: Quantum Opportunity Driven by a Quantum Threat
Innovators: Governments and military

3.1.1National and civil government
Military
Early adopters: The financial sector
3.3 The telecommunications industry: A force to be reckoned with
3.4 Data Centers: Late entry for QKD expected
3.5 Late to the QKD market: Data centers, utilities, infrastructure, mobile
3.5.1 Data centers and enterprise networks
3.5.2 Utilities and infrastructure
3.6 Consumer markets for QKD
3.7 QKD: Factors impacting purchasing considerations
3.8 The role of QKD in international quantum
3.9 The role of government funding in the development of QKD
3.9.1 EU
3.9.2 United States
3.9.3 South Korea
3.10 Key Points from this Chapter
 
Chapter Four: Ten-year Forecasts of QKD Markets
4.1 Forecasting methodology
4.2 Forecast by end-User
4.2.1 Changes since our last report
4.2.2 Forecast of military QKD
4.2.3 Forecast for QKD in civil government (including police and intelligence)
4.2.4 Forecast for QKD in the telecom and related industries
4.2.5 Forecast for QKD in utilities and other infrastructure applications
4.2.6 Forecast for QKD in data centers and enterprise networks
4.2.7 Forecast for other non-mobile QKD systems
4.2.8 Forecast for QKD in mobile networks and payment systems
4.3 Forecast of QKD by transmission technology: Fiber, satellite and free-space
4.4 Forecast of critical subsystems for QKD: Transceivers, repeaters
4.5 Forecast of QKD revenues by region/country
 
Chapter Five: Profiles of QKD Companies
5.1 Approach to profiling QKD companies
5.2 ABB (Switzerland/Sweden)
5.3 Cambridge Quantum Computing (United Kingdom)
5.4 ID Quantique (Switzerland)
5.4.1 Formation and Funding
5.4.2 Products
5.4.3 Strengths in overseas markets
5.4.4 Future Plans
5.5 KETS Quantum Security (United Kingdom)
5.6 MagiQ Technologies (United States)
5.6.1 Pulse Programmers
5.6.2 Entangled Photon Sources
5.7 Nokia (Finland)
5.7.1 Work with SK Telecom
5.7.2 QKD, Cell Phones and Payment Systems
5.7.3 Alcatel-Lucent
5.8 QuantumCtek (China)
5.9 Quantum Xchange (United States)
5.9.1 Networking Plans
5.9.2 Technology
5.10 Qubitekk (United States)
5.10.1 Current Products and Technology
5.11 QuintessenceLabs (Australia)
5.11.1 Advanced Key Management: Trusted Security Foundation (TSF)
5.11.2 True Random Number Generator: qStream
5.11.3 Integrated Encryption Products
5.11.4 Client SDK
5.12 SK Telecom (Korea)
5.12.1 Collaboration with Nokia
5.12.2 Collaboration with and Investment in ID Quantique
5.13 Toshiba (Japan)
5.13.1 Toshiba’s QKD System
5.13.2 Involvement with BT
5.13.3 Field Trial with Quantum Xchange
5.13.4 Whole-Genome Sequence Data Transmission Trial with Tohoku University

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