Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) Markets: 2019-2028

Report: IQT-QKD-0419
Published April 8, 2019

Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) is one of two encryption technologies designed to protect critical data in the quantum era.  QKD– in theory at least – leads to intrinsically unbreakable data transmission.  When Inside Quantum Technology published its first report on QKD a few years ago, QKD was mostly experimental and aimed at government/military markets.  However, as discussed in this new QKD report, the addressable market for QKD is expanding from specialized projects sponsored by governments and the largest financial institutions to large data centers, of which there are a large and growing number.

This report identifies the revenue generation opportunities from Quantum Key Distribution and provides market forecasts for the next decade.  These forecasts are in both volume and value terms and include both QKD equipment, component-level products and related networking products.  Each of the forecasts is also broken out by product and technology type, application and end-user industry, geography and location of end users.  Throughout the report, we have discussed the role of China in the QKD, since that country has made itself one of the key regions for technological advance and deployments of QKD.

Strategic profiles of all the leading firms supplying QKD systems and related components are also provided.  In these profiles we discuss how each firm regards the current state of the QKD market and how they expect it to develop. We also examine their sources of finance and how they plan to develop their products over the next few years.  The report also examines the latest R&D into QKD and how this will impact the commercial quantum encryption market and the development of QKD products.

This report will be essential reading for product, marketing and strategy executive throughout the entire encryption sector, including QKD systems makers and providers of encryption software of all kinds. It will also be of considerable interest to investors in the QKD space.

Executive Summary 

  • E.1 The Market for QKD is Set for Explosive Growth

  • E.1.1 Changes in the User Profile for QKD Since Our Last Report

  • E.2 Technology Evolution

  • E.2.1 The QKD Infrastructure Gets Serious

  • E.2.2 Of Repeaters and Trusted Nodes

  • E.2.3 QKD Technology Roadmap

  • E.3 The Emergence of Private Funding for QKD

  • E.4 Summary of Ten-year Forecasts of QKD Markets

  • E.4.1 Forecasts by End-user Segment

  • E.4.2 Forecasts by Transmission Technology

  • E.5 Five Firms to Watch in the QKD Space

Chapter One: Introduction

  • 1.1 Background to this Report

  • 1.1.1 Big Support from Government and the Military

  • 1.1.2 Banks, Financial Services and QKD

  • 1.1.3 QKD and the Telecom Community

  • 1.1.4 QKD, Data Centers and the Enterprise

  • 1.1.5 Mobile QKD

  • 1.1.6 The Three Problems with QKD

  • 1.2 Goals and Scope of this Report

  • 1.3 Methodology of this Report

  • 1.4 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Technological Evolution of Commercial Quantum Encryption Technology

  • 2.1 QKD’s Role in the Evolving Encryption Ecosystem: Current Status

  • 2.1.1 QKD vs. PQC

  • 2.2 Evolution of Quantum Encryption

  • 2.2.1 Pre-QKD Technologies

  • 2.2.2 QKD Technologies: Technology Issues

  • 2.2.3 Encryption beyond QKD

  • 2.3 Technical and Economic Hurdles to Widespread Adoption

  • 2.3.1 QKD as Part of the Global Encryption Ecosystem

  • 2.3.2 Weaknesses of QKD from an Encryption Perspective

  • 2.3.3 Speed and Bandwidth: Gaps between Current QKD and Economic Viability

  • 2.3.4 The Distance Issue: QKD Signal Integrity and the Need for Quantum Repeaters

  • 2.4 QKD Industry Standards: Balancing Innovation Against Industry Interoperability

  • 2.5 QKD Infrastructure

  • 2.5.1 Fiber-optic Infrastructure

  • 2.5.2 Satellite and Aircraft-to-Ground Infrastructure

  • 2.5.3 Terrestrial Line-of-Sight Infrastructure

  • 2.5.4 Quantum Infrastructure: Single-Particle Generators and Detectors

  • 2.6 The Role of National Laboratories and Quantum Technology Institutes in Developing QKD

  • 2.7 Key Points from this Chapter


Chapter Three: Markets for QKD Systems

  • 3.1 QKD Markets: A Government Funded Technology with Extensive Commercial Applications

  • 3.1.1 New Markets for QKD Opening Up: Maybe

  • 3.1.2 The QKD Purchasing Decision

  • 3.2 Government Markets

  • 3.2.1 The Role of Government Funding for QKD

  • 3.2.2 Military Markets for QKD

  • 3.2.3 Priority Markets for QKD: Executives and Embassies

  • 3.2.4 Civil Government Markets

  • 3.2.5 Broadening Government Markets: New Opportunities for QKD Firms

  • 3.2.6 QKD and the Cybersecurity War with China

  • 3.3 Civilian Markets for QKD

  • 3.3.1 Financial Institutions

  • 3.3.2 General Business Communications

  • 3.3.3 Healthcare Applications

  • 3.3.4 Infrastructure: Protecting Infrastructure from Cyberterrorism

  • 3.3.5 Telecom Companies and the Wider Commercial Adoption of QKD

  • 3.4 Key Points from this Chapter

Chapter Four: Ten-year Forecasts of Quantum Encryption Markets

  • 4.1 Forecasting Methodology

  • 4.2 Forecast by End-User Type

  • 4.3 Forecast by Type of QKD System: Terrestrial or Satellite

  • 4.4 Forecast of Key QKD-related Equipment and Components

  • 4.5 Forecast by Geography/Location of End Users


Chapter Five: Profiles of QKD Companies


  • 5.1 Approach to Profiling

  • 5.2 ABB (Acquired Keymile)

  • 5.3 Anhui Qasky (China)

  • 5.5 ID Quantique (Switzerland)

  • 5.5.1 Formation and Funding

  • 5.5.2 Products

  • 5.5.3 Strengths in Overseas Markets

  • 5.5.4 Future Plans

  • 5.6 KETS Quantum Security (United Kingdom)

  • 5.7 KPN (Netherlands)

  • 5.8 MagiQ Technologies (United States)

  • 5.8.1 Pulse Programmers

  • 5.8.2 Entangled Photon Sources

  • 5.9 Mitsubishi Electric (Japan)

  • 5.10 Nokia (Finland)

  • 5.10.1 Work with SK Telecom

  • 5.10.2 QKD, Cell Phones and Payment Systems

  • 5.10.3 Alcatel-Lucent

  • 5.11 NTT (Japan)

  • 5.12 Nucrypt (United States)

  • 5.13 Oki Electric (Japan)

  • 5.14 QinetiQ (United Kingdom)

  • 5.15 QuantumCtek (China)

  • 5.16 Quantum Xchange Quantum Xchange (United States)

  • 5.16.1 Networking Plans

  • 5.16.2 Technology

  • 5.17 Qubitekk (United States)

  • 5.17.1 Current Products and Technology

  • 5.18 QuintessenceLabs (Australia)

  • 5.18.1 Advanced Key Management: Trusted Security Foundation (TSF)

  • 5.18.2 True Random Number Generator: qStream

  • 5.18.3 Integrated Encryption Products

  • 5.18.4 Client SDK

  • 5.19 Raytheon (United States)

  • 5.20 SK Telecom (Korea)

  • 5.20.1 Work with Nokia

  • 5.21 Toshiba (Japan)

  • 5.21.1 Toshiba’s QKD System

  • 5.21.2 Involvement with BT

  • 5.21.3 Genome Trial with Tohoku

  • 5.22 ZTE (China)

  • About Inside Quantum Technology

  • About the Analyst

  • Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report

List of Exhibits

  • Exhibit E-1: QKD Opportunities Assessed by Transport Media Type

  • Exhibit E-2: Market for QKD Systems by End User ($Millions)

  • Exhibit E-3: Market for QKD Systems by Transport Type

  • Exhibit E-4: Five Firms to Watch in the QKD Space

  • Exhibit 3-1: Summary of Established and Emerging Markets for QKD

  • Exhibit 3-2: Summary of Factors Going into QKD Purchase Decision

  • Exhibit 4-1: Market for QKD Systems by End User

  • Exhibit 4-2: Market for QKD Systems by Transport Type

  • Exhibit 4-3: Market for QKD Components and Subsystems ($ Millions)

  • Exhibit 4-4: Market for QKD Systems Components by Region/Country ($ Millions)

  • Exhibit 5-1: Companies to Watch in the Quantum Encryption Space

  • Exhibit 5-2: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—ABB

  • Exhibit 5-3: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—Anhui Qasky

  • Exhibit 5-4: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—Fujitsu Electric

  • Exhibit 5-5: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—ID Quantique

  • Exhibit 5-6: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—KETS

  • Exhibit 5-7: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—KPN

  • Exhibit 5-8: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—MagiQ

  • Exhibit 5-9: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—Mitsubishi Electric

  • Exhibit 5-10:Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—Nokia

  • Exhibit 5-11: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—NTT

  • Exhibit 5-12: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—Nucrypt

  • Exhibit 5-13: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—Oki Electric

  • Exhibit 5-14: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—QinetiQ

  • Exhibit 5-15: : Inside Quantum Technology’s Take— QuantumCtek

  • Exhibit 5-16: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—Quantum Xchange

  • Exhibit 5-17: Inside Quantum Technology’s Take—Qubitekk


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