POST-QUANTUM CRYPTOGRAPHY (PQC): A REVENUE ASSESSMENT

Report IQT-PQC-0520
Published May 1, 2020

This report is a guide to the business opportunities that can be provided by Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) in the coming decade. Last year Google announced its breaking news of achieving quantum supremacy and in the coming months, NIST will be finalizing Round 2 of its algorithm standardization process. As awareness of the growing Quantum Computing threat increases and the standards for PQC algorithms solidify, Inside Quantum Technology expects a boom in revenue for this technology in the next few years.

For now, PQC finds its markets in critical long-lived data such as plans for aircraft and medical databases that need to survive well into the era of powerful quantum computers. However, encryption is hidden everywhere in both hardware and software – from IoT devices to web browsers – so the addressable market for PQC can be measured in billions of units. Coverage of this report includes:

  • Ten-year forecasts of the PQC market with breakouts by government, military and intelligence services, telecommunications, IoT, financial services, healthcare/medical records, general business applications, disaster recovery, and consumer Web browsers.
  • Analysis of end-user groups and perspectives. Organizations vary highly in their adoption rates for new technologies and their requirements for the exact form of PQC solution. This variety defines when each group should become concerned with potential security issues and when it will begin generating revenue.
  • Analysis of the new PQC standards emerging from NIST, the IETF and a slew of other influencers such as ETSI, the Cloud Security Alliance, and ITU-T. The report discusses how these standards will help shape the PQC market along with key standards-related issues such as the potential for pure post-quantum cryptography vs. hybrid classical/quantum approaches and PQC vs. quantum physics-based Quantum Key Distribution (QKD).
  • Strategic profiles of leading commercial firms active in the PQC space. These profiles include giants such as Infineon, IBM, Google, and Microsoft, along with interesting startups such as Isara. These profiles are designed to provide the reader of this report with an understanding of how the major players are creating PQC products and building marketing strategies for PQC as quantum computers become more ubiquitous.

Table of Contents Post-Quantum Cryptography
 
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 Evolution of the PQC Market
1.1.2 The Coming PQC Upgrade
1.1.3 PQC Product Development
1.2 Goals and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report
 
Chapter Two: Post-Quantum Encryption Technology, Standards and Products
2.1 The Threat to Classical Cryptography from Quantum Computers
2.1.1 Symmetric and Asymmetric Algorithms: Vulnerable to a Quantum Computer
2.2 Quantum Supremacy: Progress, Controversy and Likely Timetable
2.2.1 Timeframe for the Codebreaking Computer
2.2.2 Influence of Neven’s Law
2.2.3 What Quantum News Means for PQC
2.3 PQC versus QKD
2.4 Timeline for PQC Adoption
2.4.1 Lessons from History
2.4.2 After NIST Round
2.4.3 After Round
2.5 How Concerned are End Users with Y2Q?
2.5.1 Y2K and Y2Q
2.5.2 Types of Communities Considered in Terms of their Concern
2.6 PQC Software and Firmware: Market Potential
2.6.1 Standard Internet Browsers
2.6.2 Specialized PQC Software
2.6.3 Crypto Libraries
2.6.4 PQC Firmware
2.7 PQC Hardware: Market Potential
2.7.1 PQC Chips
2.7.2 Hardware Security Modules
2.8 Ten-year Forecast of PQC Revenue by Product and Service Type
2.9 Key Points from this Chapter
 
Chapter Three: Markets for Post-Quantum Cryptography Products and Services:
Ten-year Forecasts
3.1 Market Dynamics for PQC
3.1.1 Timeframes for PQC Development
3.1.2 Current Customer Responses
3.1.3 Market Forecasts and the Hockey-stick Curve
3.2 Magnetic Tape Drives as Potential Early Candidates for PQC Integration
3.2.1 IBM’s Quantum Computing Safe Tape Drive
3.2.2 Ten-Year Forecasts of Magnetic Tapes with Embedded QKC
3.3 Remote Disaster Recovery
3.3.1 Ten-year Forecasts of Remote Disaster Recovery
3.4 PQC-enabled Browsers
3.4.1 A Note on Google
3.4.2 PQC and TLS
3.4.3 Ten Year Forecast of Web Browsers with PQC
3.5 Financial Services Industry: Market for PQC
3.5.1 Financial Records Management
3.5.2 Credit Cards and PQC
3.5.3 Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain
3.5.4 Ten Year Forecast of PQC in the Financial Services Industry
3.6 Healthcare Records and Privacy with PQC
3.6.1 Use of Encryption for Healthcare Records
3.6.2 Encryption Consulting in Healthcare
3.6.3 Security Regulations in the U.S.: HIPPA and Encryption
3.6.4 Healthcare and Medical Records: Ten-year PQC Forecast
3.7 PQC and Cybersecurity Services
3.7.1 PQC as a Service
3.7.2 Software Recommendation, Development and Acquisition
3.7.3 Design and Implementation of PQC
3.7.4 Ten-year Forecasts of PQC in the Cybersecurity Industry
3.8 Telecommunications Industry: 5G and IoT
3.8.1 5G and PQC: Ten-year Forecasts
3.8.2 IoT and PQC
3.9 Manufacturing Industries
3.9.1 Ten-year Forecasts of PQC
3.9.2 A Note on PQC and the Automotive Industry
3.10 Public Sector Applications for PQC
3.10.1 Military and Intelligence Services
3.10.2 Embassies
3.10.3 Police Uses
3.10.4 Ten-year Forecast
3.11 Key Points from this Chapter
 
Chapter Four: Post-Quantum Encryption Companies: Products, Strategy and Competitive Analysis
4.1 PQC Business Structure Evolution
4.2 01 Communique (Canada)
4.2.1 Hackathon
4.2.2 Japanese Market
4.2.3 Our View of 01 Communique PQC
4.3 CryptoNext Security (Formerly Post Quantum Advanced Technologies) (France)
4.3.1 Financial Affiliations and Quantum-safe Product Directions: A Software/Hardware Hybrid
4.3.1 End User Activities
4.3.4 Our View of CryptoNext PQC
4.4 Envieta Systems (United States)
4.4.1 QFlex
4.4.2 Consulting Services
4.4.3 Our View of Envieta PQC
4.5 evolutionQ (Canada)
4.5.1 Background to evolutionQ
4.5.2 Our View of evolutionQ PQC
4.6 Google
4.6.1 Chrome Canary
4.6.2 Cloudflare
4.6.3 Our View of Google PQC
4.7 IBM Research (United States)
4.7.1 Products and Open-Source Contributions
4.7.2 Consulting and Internal Development Work
4.7.3 Our View of IBM PQC
4.8 Infineon (Germany)
4.8.1 Contactless Security Chip with PQC
4.8.2 Research Acceleration Announcement
4.8.3 Our View of Infineon PQC
4.9 ISARA (Canada)
4.9.1 Standards Participation
4.9.2 Products and Technologies
4.9.3 Partnerships
4.9.4 Our View of ISARA PQC
4.10 Microsoft (United States)
4.10.1 Libraries
4.10.2 PQC for Project Natick
4.10.3 OpenVPN + PQSK
4.10.4 Our View of Microsoft PQC
4.11 Post-Quantum (United Kingdom)
4.11.1 Products and Technologies
4.11.2 Partnerships and Case Studies
4.11.3 Our View of Post Quantum PQC
4.12 PQSecure (United States)
4.12.1 Products and Technologies
4.12.2 Our View of PQSecure PQC
4.13 PQShield (United Kingdom)
4.13.1 Products and Technologies
4.13.3 Our View of PQShield PQC
4.14 Qualcomm (United States)
4.14.1 Our View of Qualcomm PQC
4.15 Thales (France)
4.15.1 Involvement with Government/Standardization Schemes
4.15.2 Quantum-safe Digital Certificate
4.15.3 Our View of PQShield PQC
4.16 Rambus
4.16.1 The Three Bears
4.16.2 Our View of Rambus PQC
4.17 Utimaco (Germany)
4.17.1 Q-safe Firmware Extension
4.17.2 Q-safe Simulator
4.17.3 Block-safe
4.17.4 Our View of Utimaco PQC
 
Chapter Five: Other Organizations Shaping the PQC Market
5.1 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)
5.1.1 Post-quantum Cryptography Selection at NIST: A Recent Update
5.1.2 Classes of Algorithm
5.1.3 SafeCrypto
5.2 Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF)
5.2.1 IETF Work Related to PQC
5.3 National Security Agency (NSA)
5.3.1 NSA Work Related to PQC
5.4 Cloud Security Alliance (CSA)
5.4.1 Quantum Safe Security Working Group
5.5 European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI)
5.6 PQCrypto
5.7 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
5.8 International Telecommunications Union (ITU)
5.9 ANSI Accredited Standards Committee X9
5.10 Open Quantum Safe
About Inside Quantum Technology
About the Analyst
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report
 
List of Exhibits
Exhibit 2-1: PQC versus QKD
Exhibit 2-2: PQC Software and Firmware
Exhibit 2-3: PQC Hardware: Market Potential
Exhibit 2-4: Forecast of Specialized PQC Software and Chips
Exhibit 3-1: Timing for Quantum-Safe Solutions vs. Large Scale Quantum Computer
Exhibit 3-2: Overall Penetration Rate of Post-quantum Cryptography
Exhibit 3-3: Forecast of Specialized PQC Products for Magnetic Tapes (1)
Exhibit 3-4: Forecast of Specialized PQC Software for Remote Disaster Recovery (1)
Exhibit 3-5: Forecast of Specialized PQC Software for Consumer Browsers
Exhibit 3-6: Forecast of Specialized PQC Software for Financial Services
Exhibit 3-7: Forecast of Specialized PQC Software for Healthcare
Exhibit 3-8: Forecast of Specialized PQC Services Offered by the Cybersecurity Industry (1)
Exhibit 3-9: Forecast of Specialized PQC Services Offered by Type (1)
Exhibit 3-10: Forecast of 5G Infrastructure Equipment with Embedded PQC Software (1)
Exhibit 3-11: Forecast of 5G Phones with Embedded PQC Software
Exhibit 3-12: Forecast of IoT with Embedded PQC Software
Exhibit 3-13: Forecast of Embedded PQC Software for Machine Tools
Exhibit 3-14: Forecast of Embedded PQC Software for Intelligence, Military and Police (1)
Exhibit 4-1: Survey of Companies in the PQC Market
Exhibit 4-2: 01 Communique IronCAP PQC Products
Exhibit 4-3: Microsoft PQC Products
Exhibit 4-4: Microsoft PQC Library
Exhibit 4-5: PQShield Products and Technologies
Exhibit 4-6: Qualcom/OnBoard Security: Algorithms
Exhibit 5-1: Groups Providing PQC Standards


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