Market for Post-Quantum Cryptography Software and Devices to Reach $3.9 billion by 2028
January 10, 2019
Crozet, Virginia: According to “Post-Quantum Cryptography: A Ten-Year Market and Technology Forecast,” a new report from Inside Quantum Technology (www.insidequantumtechnology.com), the market for post-quantum cryptography (PQC) software and devices will ramp up dramatically as quantum computers become capable of breaking popular public-key encryption algorithms. PQC refers to techniques using software algorithms to encrypt messages on a classical computer in a manner that is resistant to being broken by quantum computers.
Revenues from Post-Quantum Cryptography products will reach $145 million by 2014 jumping to $3.8 billion by 2028 as the quantum threat becomes more apparent. Inside Quantum Technology is the only industry analyst firm that specializes in tracking and forecasting the quantum technology market.
More on this report can be found at: https://www.insidequantumtechnology.com/product/post-quantum-cryptography-ten-year-forecast/
Although quantum computers capable of easily breaking common encryption schemes may take a decade to arrive, IT managers are already counting down to Y2Q (Years to Quantum). Some are already implementing PQC for highly valuable data that must last until well after the arrival of quantum computers. Medical records and aircraft designs are two examples of such data. In 2018 the Cloud Security Alliance conducted a survey to better understand how aware IT managers were of quantum risks. They discovered that 86 percent of such managers were aware, at least to some degree, of such risks and almost 20 percent believed that PQC will be required in the next 12 months.
Early adopters of PQC will be those IT managers who have identified a specific need to protect high-value, long shelf-life data. For the rest of the IT community, the conversion will begin when PQC standards are finalized by NIST and other standardization groups.
About the Report
“Post-Quantum Cryptography: A Ten-Year Market and Technology Forecast,” is the first industry analysis report to quantify the business opportunities from PQC products. The report includes granular 10-year forecasts with breakouts by application and product type and provides coverage of both hardware and software. The report includes discussion of lattice-based cryptography, hash-based schemes, elliptic curve isogenies, multivariate cryptography, and code-based cryptography, as well as hybrid solutions and the trade-off between PQC and QKD.
Among the firms whose strategies are analyzed in this report are AMD, ARM, Blackberry, Cambridge Quantum Computing, Cisco, Envieta, evolutionQ, Google, IBM Research, Infineon, Intel, Isara, Microsoft Research, OnBoard Security, PQAT, Rambus and Thales/Gemalto. Also included is a description of current standardization efforts by government and industry groups such as NIST, the IETF, ETSI, the Cloud Security Alliance and ITU-T.
Applications for PQC covered in this report include civilian government; military, intelligence and domestic security; financial services; telecommunications; data centers and disaster recovery; Internet-of-Things; healthcare and medical records; consumer browsers and general business applications.
From the Report
- The largest market for PQC will eventually be standard web browsers, simply because there are so many browsers in cell phones and personal computers. Here PQC will replace the current RSA and Diffie-Hellman algorithms in use today and will be easy to upgrade. By 2026 PQC revenues generated by browsers will reach almost $650 million. However, early PQC revenues in the browser segment will use hybrid classical/PQC algorithms and browsers will be able to select the appropriate encryption algorithm to use depending on the site.
- The financial sector is particularly vulnerable to attack, since large sums of money are obtained in a successful hack. Cryptocurrencies — Bitcoin, Ethereum and the others – use classical public key algorithm and will need to convert to PQC to stay to stay safe. Already, two quantum resistant cryptocurrencies — Mochimo and QRL have been released and others are in development. By 2026 revenues from PQC products sold into the financial services will reach almost $300 million.
- While PQC is mostly implemented in software, for certain embedded systems, a hardware approach may be preferable because these applications do not typically have available a powerful main processor that can implement the full algorithm in software. Some organizations are working to implement the algorithms either using a dedicated ASIC chip or else using an FPGA. Infineon has developed a contactless smart card chip that implements the NewHope algorithm. By 2026, chip-level PQC solutions will generate $120 million.
Inside Quantum Technology was founded by Lawrence Gasman in association with Alan Meckler’s 3DR Holdings. Gasman is the author of several reports on the quantum technology business and has founded or co-founded three other industry analyst firms and industry conferences. Inside Quantum Technology hosts a daily news feed on quantum technology at www.insidequantumtechnology.com and can be followed on both Twitter and Linked-In.
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