(CarnegieEndowment) Japan and the United States can expect China, backed by its growing military power, to continue to pursue a more assertive security policy over the next five to ten years.
Tokyo and Washington can also expect Beijing to attempt to exploit regional uncertainty about the sustainability of U.S. leadership, by—for example—using uncertainty about U.S. economic engagement or regional security policy to heighten concerns about Washington’s approach among U.S. allies and partners.
If China shifts its most sensitive military communication and data traffic into quantum networks—although the actual timing of realizing this goal is uncertain—that could frustrate U.S. cyber intelligence and signals intelligence capabilities. The development of quantum radar, imaging, and sensing could potentially undermine stealth technologies.
This means Japan and the United States should continue to explore effective, coordinated responses in situations short of war, particularly in the cyber and the maritime domains.
Tokyo and Washington should continuously reconfirm their common vision of security in the Indo-Pacific and review their respective roles and missions to defeat China’s attempts to divide the alliance.
NOTE: This is a comprehensive document authored by:
Michael S. Chase is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and an adjunct professor in the China Studies and Strategic Studies Departments at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.
Satoru Mori is a professor in the Faculty of Law at Hosei University. He specializes in international relations, U.S. foreign policy, and Cold War history.
Masafumi Iida is a senior fellow at Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies. He specializes in Chinese foreign policy and East Asian studies.